Tongwei (600438): Photovoltaic leader profitability rebounds production capacity release to promote future performance growth

Tongwei (600438): Photovoltaic leader profitability rebounds production capacity release to promote future performance growth
The profitability of photovoltaic leaders rebounded, and the first quarter performance was dazzling.Against the backdrop of photovoltaic and industry fluctuations in 2018, benefiting from the second phase of Chengdu’s full production capacity and the reduction of cost and efficiency of the old silicon material production capacity, sales growth boosted the company’s revenue 275.35 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.53%.The company continued to optimize the cost of silicon materials, the scale effect of the cell became apparent, and the gross profit margin of Q4 rebounded, thereby achieving net profit attributable to mothers20.1.9 billion, down by 0 every year.03%.In the first quarter of 2019, the overseas market promoted demand in the off-season. The company continued to tap the potential of old capacity to increase efficiency, increase monthly production, reduce costs, and climb new capacity. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue 61.69 ppm, an increase of 18 years.14%, gross profit margin 22.25%, a new high in recent years. Continue to promote the release of production capacity, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and consolidate the industry’s leading categories.At the end of 2018, the company’s Inner Mongolia Baotou, Sichuan Leshan each 2.5 The initial silicon material project was put into production, and the company’s silicon material production capacity reached 8. Each of Baotou and Leshan Phase 2 planned for the future.5 borosilicate materials project.In 2018, the company’s silicon material old capacity production cost decreased by 0 every year.350,000 yuan / ton to 5.53 million tons / ton, and single crystal materials accounted for 70%. With the new capacity put into production, the company’s silicon material costs will increase by 4,000 tons / ton.With the production of Chengdu and Hefei battery cell projects, the company has formed 3GW polycrystalline and 9GW single crystal cell production capacity. After the fourth phase of Chengdu and Meishan project are put into operation in 2019, the company’s cell production capacity will reach 20GW, and the industry leader will be further consolidated. The subsidy policy was initially implemented, and the photovoltaic installation progress was advanced.On April 10th and 12th, the National Energy Administration solicited opinions on parity projects and bidding projects. The opinion draft clearly encourages the priority allocation of parity projects and the preferential consumption of electricity. At present, the parity projects declared in the industry are above 7GW; the bidding projects are divided intoFive categories, with a plan of US $ 3 billion in 2019, will be used to supplement the installed capacity. Among them, the photovoltaic poverty alleviation and replacement plan, under the overall tone of steady improvement, is expected to increase the installed capacity is still more than 40GW, and the subsidy policy is gradually implemented.Confidence, progress in photovoltaic installation progress. The price of silicon materials is expected to bottom out, and the company’s production capacity climbs smoothly.Recently, the prices of single crystal and rare earth materials have increased slightly, and the price of silicon materials is expected to bottom out.The highest, at the current price level, most of the second- and third-line throughput are in a reset 苏州夜网论坛 state; reorganization, enterprises in advance to deal with production pressure caused by downward price maintenance, to a certain extent to ease the supply pressure.The company’s existing Baotou production capacity of single crystals has increased to about 20%. It is expected that when demand improves in the third quarter, it will further increase to 50% or even 70% or more. The company’s new production capacity has obvious cost advantages and its profitability continues to increase. Profit forecast and estimation.We expect the company to achieve revenue of 340 in 2019-2021.44,408.83 and 473.70 ppm, an increase of 23 each year.64%, 20.09% and 15.87%, net profit attributable to mother 32.50, 39.02 and 47.48 ppm, an increase of 60 each year.98%, 20.07% and 21.67%, the diluted carbon dioxide income is zero.84, 1.01 and 1.22 重庆耍耍网 yuan / share.Based on the closing price on April 19, 2019, the corresponding PE is 17, 15 and 12 times.With the gradual implementation of the photovoltaic subsidy policy, domestic demand will gradually start, and the industry’s growth space will gradually increase in the advent of the parity era. The company has obvious cost and technical advantages as a photovoltaic leader, and maintains a “buy” rating on the company. Risk factors: policy support is less than expected risk; force majeure risk; overseas market demand is less than expected risk, etc.