Biological Stock (600201): The turning point in the company’s performance is about to appear in research and development, and the technological advantage is further highlighted!
Industry scale: how to look at the growth space of the in vivo animal vaccine industry?
The vaccine industry is product driven.
First, the blight creates markets. Historically, animal diseases such as swine fever, blue ear, and foot-and-mouth disease have erupted one after another, leading to the continuous expansion of the swine vaccine industry. The current swine fever epidemic in Africa has caused the industry to expand again.Leading to the continuous expansion of the animal vaccine industry; Secondly, the scale of breeding has continued to increase, the market trend of animal vaccine sales has trended, and high-quality products have been sold at high prices, which has continued to promote the expansion of the industry.
Taking swine vaccines as an example, referring to the use of veterinary drugs and vaccines by Wen’s shares and Makihara shares, the potential market space for swine veterinary drugs and vaccines alone can reach 75 billion. If the vaccine proportion reaches 40%, the vaccines for swine useThe market space will reach 300 trillion, nearly 6 times the market size in 17 years.
Industry benchmark: With reference to Shuo Teng, what are the growth paths and key success factors of vaccine companies?
Shuo Teng’s growth path: relying on product advantages to form breakthroughs in some large single products (Shuo Teng is an antibiotic), and then rely on the big singles to form a platform advantage of R & D, technology, channels and brands, and use this platform to carry outCategory expansion (endogenous R & D and outsourcing M & A), so as to continuously enrich the product line and achieve continuous growth.
In Shuo Teng’s growth path, we believe that creating outstanding product power through leading R & D and process levels is the core of its success; secondly, the company’s extensive sales, service system, and brand power built for the company’sExpansion provided assistance. Third, in the expansion strategy, effective diversification and outreach were carried out.
Biological Shares: Beyond foot-and-mouth vaccines, create a platform-based enterprise centered on “product power, sales power, and brand power” to achieve company product category expansion and long-term growth.
The company has integrated the advantages of its previous leading business platform through the single product of the foot and mouth disease market.
1) Product power: The company’s new park (especially its P3 laboratory) will achieve further development of R & D and technology to further enhance the competitive advantage of the company’s products; 2) sales power: the company’s sales through the foot-and-mouth disease market’s seedling sales systemThe advancement of construction and technical services has created leading high-penetration and high-viscosity channels; 3) Brand power: strengthen customer stickiness and increase product brand premium.
Relying on this, the restructured company gradually introduced new products such as circular vaccine and swine OA vaccine, and quickly realized product sales volume; the company acquired Liaoning Yikang to obtain high pathogenic bird flu vaccine production qualification, and is gradually entering the harvest period.
Based on the advantages of platform enterprises, we believe that the company’s future 合肥夜网 growth is expected to continue to accelerate.
African swine fever vaccine is expected to open up the company’s performance and market value growth space.
According to the announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the African swine fever vaccine has entered the pilot and GMO safety evaluation stage.
If the subsequent vaccine is commercialized, we estimate that under the recruitment system, it is expected to bring at least 12 to the company.
With 500 million revenue increment space and 500 million profit increment space, the market seedling system attempts to bring the company 4 billion revenue increment space and 1.8 billion profit increment space.
”Buy” rating: The company is expected to achieve revenue from 2019-2021.
8.6 billion, the same increase -34.
11% / 41.
83% / 57.
19%, net profit attributable to mother 3.
1.2 billion, the same increase -51.
4% / 65.
7% / 66.
6%. Considering the company’s high profit growth and potential profit increase brought about by the commercialization of non-blast vaccines in the future, it is given a “Buy” rating with a target price of 27 yuan.
Risk reminders: epidemic risk in the breeding industry; increased competition in the market; risk of regulatory changes