Goldwind Technology (002202): How to Look at the Changes in the Gross Margin of Fans

Goldwind Technology (002202): How to Look at the Changes in the Gross Margin of Fans
Due to the price war and rising costs, the gross profit margin of Goldwind Technology fans has gradually decreased since 2018. At present, the price of fans has stopped falling and rebounded, but the market is still not optimistic about the company’s cost control capabilities.We believe that driven by centralized budgets and platformization, the savings in wind turbine costs due to the consolidation of material usage have room to fall more than 天津夜网 expected. Core point of view Since 2018, the gross profit margin of Goldwind Technology’s wind turbine business has increased. In addition to price factors, the main cost has increased by more than expected by 7%, leading to market doubts about the company’s cost control capabilities.We believe that the fundamental reason for the increase in costs is that the product structure has been dominated by low wind speeds in the past two years. The increase in the diameter of the impeller has led to an increase in the cost of materials per unit capacity by nearly 20%.potential. With the opening of the tide of rush installation, the bargaining power of the wind power market has shifted to the vertical direction. The OEMs have continuously increased market quotations, reorganized and compressed product sequences, and transformed the platform into a better environment. The unit capacity of wind turbines fell by more than 10%.It is believed that the cost of wind turbines in 2020 is expected to replace the level in 2017, and the conservatively estimated gross profit margin is expected to rise to more than 18%. After entering the parity era, the wind power development model will undergo major changes. The traditional low-price competition strategy of the OEMs will be replaced by more abundant price signals. It has a comprehensive perspective on the cost of the complete machine + tower, operation and maintenance, and power generation.The leading leading companies are expected to win. The latest parity demonstration base price has stabilized at 3400 yuan / kW. At the same time, due to the further dilution of the material costs of large-scale units, the gross margin of wind turbines in the parity era is expected to remain above 20%. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations We predict that the company’s 2019-2020 earnings will be 0.70, 1.09, 1.23 yuan, comparable company 13 times PE in 2020, Goldwind Technology as the industry leader, we give 10% estimated premium, according to 14 times PE in 2020, corresponding to the target price of 15.26 yuan, given a “buy” rating. Risk reminder that budget volume is less than expected cost decline is less than expected investment income expectation